• ANDREW DEMIRDJIAN
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A STRATEGY FOR ARNENIA’S NATIONAL SECURITY

Posted on April. 9. 2021

“Gross negligence in handling
national security is a felony.”
Bill O’Reilly

Z. S. Andrew Demirdjian

The following article was written before Azerbaijan’s onslaught on Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) during the 44-day war in 2020, but for some reason it had fallen through the cracks and was not published on time. Pity –for forethought or foresight was overlooked. I anticipated part of the complex, but very crucial question Mr. Appo Jabarian has raised: “What specific steps should be taken in order to ensure Armenia’s and Armenian nation’s survival”? (USA Armenian Life Magazine Issue # 1773, March 19-25, 2021). My response will focus on Armenia’s military defense for survival.

         
The latest round of fighting beginning on September 27, 2020 has reportedly resulted in 5,000 Armenian soldiers and over hundreds of civilian deaths and the destruction of multiple armored vehicles and combat aircraft on both sides. Armenia had lost between $1.2  and $3 billion worth of military weapons, ammunitions, and equipment. Seven regions used for buffer zone, 190 Armenian settlements became under Azerbaijani control, and thirty (30%) of Artsakh’s territory were all lost to Azerbaijan.

       

   Armenia had declared martial law and had begun mobilizing its reservists. President Arayik Harutyunyan had just informed the public that there had been four thousand (4,000) Syrian soldiers (i.e., mercenaries) in Azerbaijan’s army. Should these types of attacks happen in the future, and they will, Armenians have to be ready to sustain a protracted war with Azerbaijan, emboldened by its newly acquired arms and weaponry and by its genocidal alley, Turkey. The sharks have tasted blood. 

       
  So, in this article, after an introduction to the use of contractors and mercenaries of war in the past and in the present, we need to plan on a strategy in advance to getting Armenia and Artsakh become ready in the event the use of mercenaries becomes imperative.

         
When Azerbaijan decides to take over the Republic of Artsakh by force, and when Azerbaijan will use military contractors and mercenaries again in the hope of tilting the tide of war in its favor, Armenia should be prepared, must know where to shop and have “gold” (i.e., blood money) to hire contractors and mercenaries just like its oppressor did during the war in the 1990s and again in the 2020s.

      
    During the Artsakh War in 1992-1994, Azerbaijan obtained money, arms and mercenaries from UK, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Chechnya, Uzbekistan, and heaps of money from Saudi Arabia –including from the U.S. government and oil companies.

       
   Azerbaijan was disorganized back then; that is why it reached out to get help in hiring contractors and mercenaries from all sorts of governments, political organizations, and religious associations. Azerbaijan even ended up using extremists such as Afghanistan Mujahidin fighters and ISIS militants from Syria to fight against the Armenians.

    
      Lord Erskine of Rerrick of UK served as a  lead consultant to the Azeri government for procuring soldiers and arms against the Artsakh Armenians for an annual fee of as much as 150m pounds to be paid in oil.

      
   Although it is assumed to be against the international law to use mercenaries nowadays, the world community has always shown sympathy for its use for self-defense against an aggressor nation, such as Azerbaijan, which would have an army made up of mercenaries. Therefore, Armenia should be ready to defend itself against Azerbaijani and Turkish forces when they attempt to take Artsakh by force.

        
  Although our brave soldiers fight for love of country, mercenaries are doing it for money. What to do when Azerbaijan will outnumber, outgun the Armenian forces? This is a valid question not to be ignored by saying “we shall think of something when the time comes”.

      
    History tells us that nearly every empire has made use of mercenaries, but the first recorded instance in history were mercenaries who served for the army under the command of the Sumerian King Shulgi of Ur (2094-2047 B.C.). 

     
     Another example is Xenophon’s army consisting of Greek mercenaries known as the Ten Thousand (401-399 B.C.) tracking through Armenian Highlands. We should also include Hannibal’s sixty-thousand-men army, which marched over the rugged Alps with his elephants to attack Rome from the north.

       
   Of all the empires, Rome exploited the employment of mercenaries.

In fact, mercenaries have been the hired soldiers waging wars in the European Middle Ages. They were called “condottieri” or “contractors,” and they formed multinational companies known as “free companies,” just like Blackwater (world’s largest private military company in the U.S.) and Aegis today (Europe’s largest in the UK).

        
  Much of military history is unavailable to the public; it is mostly privatized.  The word “mercenary” derives from the Latin Merces (i.e., “wages” or “pay”.                  

   
       In modern times, the use of mercenaries has exploded even though for a few hundred years, countries have cooperated to outlaw mercenaries and privateers (i.e., mercenaries of the sea). However, their progress was curtailed after the emergence of the Cold War after WWII. 

   
       It is interesting to note that mercenaries were not revived by weak states wanting security against their brute enemies. In fact, it was a super world power that resurrected the trade. Can you guess who it was?! It was the United States, which invested billions into the private military industry.

     
     For instance, in 2010 the Pentagon appropriated $366 billion for contractors to be spent on mercenaries. That amount was five (5) times the UK’s entire defense budget. As a result, today’s private military industry has become a multi-billion dollar market.

      
    The methods of warfare have changed, Azerbaijan has the petro dollars to pay mercenaries, Armenia may have aversion to the employment of mercenaries of war based on moral grounds, but we have to face realities of the situation. Azerbaijan was not well prepared in the 1990s wars. In the 2020s, however, Azerbaijan had superlative weapons and highly motivated armed forces of its citizens and mercenaries..

     
    What made the mercenary the number one industry? One may also question as to why did the U.S., with the world’s most powerful military, need the contractors’ supply of mercenaries? Because the “All Volunteer Force” could not recruit enough American citizens to continue with two long wars, one in Iraq and the other one in Afghanistan.

     
    The U.S. could have resorted to the draft just as was done for the Vietnam War to fill the ranks. Or they could have contracted out the difference to fill the shortage of recruits with mercenaries. The decision was to go with contractors. In Iraq, 50 percent (50%) of the U.S. force was contracted while in Afghanistan it was 70 percent (70%). Incidentally, in World War II, it was only 10 percent (10%).

  
        As it is obvious, use of mercenaries has become the United States’ new way of war. As a result, U.S. has made the mercenary usage the number one industry in the military affairs.

       
   The preponderance of the contractors who fight for the United States is foreign outfits. Contrary to the common assumption, private military companies are just like any other multinational corporations. They recruit globally and they have different wage rates.     

      
    It has been estimated that more contractors were killed than regular troops in recent U.S. wars. Based on research findings, more contractors were killed in Iraq and Afghanistan than regular soldiers. Of course, the actual numbers are unknown for the U.S. government does not collect such data and the companies generally do not share them with others.

          Currently, hiring private military companies is no longer a U.S. practice anymore. Recently, mercenaries have appeared in many combat zones. For example, the United Arab Emirates hired mercenaries to fight in Yemen and Vladimir Putin hired multiethnic mercenaries to fight in eastern Ukraine and in northern Syria.

        
  The United States’ heavy reliance on military contractors both increased their numbers and, in the process, has legitimized their use. So, for Armenians filing complaints against Azerbaijan for using mercenaries would be useless if any protection were expected.

       
   That mercenaries are capable to change the course of a war is a truism. They offer the means of war to anyone who can afford it. If a nation has “gold” (money) to pay contractors and mercenaries, would enjoy peaceful nights of sleep. Those who plan in advance to put up a well-planned strategic defense, usually win the war.

       
   Let us see what strategy Armenia can follow to gain an advantage over Azerbaijan and Turkey when a new war erupts. Based on an extensive research, I present the following strategy for Armenia, Artsakh, and the Diaspora to consider:

Strategic Planning for the Employment of Contractors/Mercenaries:

I. Military Contractor Selection. Select a military contractor from U.S.A., UK, or the Middle East. It is important to bear in mind that although U.S. contractors are better organized, better trained, and have a lot of experience, their cost would be prohibitive. Because of proximity, selecting a military company located in the Middle East or UK may prove to be more cost-efficient.

II. Being Introduced to Decision Makers. Get to know the decision makers at the company. Get to have their contact information for emergency calls for help. When you make prior acquaintances with the members of the company management, you would get more help on a timely manner.

III. Privacy Matters. Make sure information given to the company is not shared with anyone else. This should be in writing.

IV. Background Information on Conflict. Provide the decisions makers of the company with brief background information about the expected conflict with your adversaries. Include a written account of the conflict and some URLs for further reading on the current conflict that show how unreasonable your adversary has been, especially during the Artsakh War of 2020.

 
V. Armenia’s Wish List. Explain what Armenia would like to have in case of war such as the approximate number of mercenaries, with what kind of expertise in handling certain type of weapons, soldiers or pilots, drone remote pilots, etc.

VI. Accommodations. Give a general information on where the advisors, mercenaries would be staying (without any actual addresses) when they arrive in Armenia. Remember, contractors want to make sure that the hired men are taken good care of with good food and comfortable accommodations before and after being launched into combat.

VII. Payment Arrangements. This phase is the prequalifying of the client. Source of financing would entail how to pay for the company’s fees, mercenary wages, cost of weapons (if any), plus any rewards when the war is won, and any victory march and celebration. Be ready to provide a guarantee, security for payment, if required.

VIII. Preliminary contract.  A copy of the preliminary contract (or a memorandum of understanding) should be read and made sure to include stipulations that in the event Armenia is not satisfied with the service, can revoke the agreement without any penalty for doing so.

      
    As we can see, in dire circumstances of the Azerbaijani government, required foreign assistance in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the 1990s and again in the 2020s. Several countries rushed to the rescue, including Russia, Turkey, Afghanistan, the United States, UK, and Iran to mention the most important ones.

        

  The galaxy of the cast of characters consisted of Turkish military advisors, international oil companies, freelance military advisors, stranded Russian soldiers for hire, Afghan warlords, Ukrainian mercenaries, Mujahedin, and Saudi financers to cite the most active ones. In the Artsakh 2020 War, again, Azerbaijan used mercenaries from Syria and Libya recruited by Turkey.

        
  In the face of adversity, Armenia most likely will find itself in need of assistance when Azerbaijan decides to attack. Mercenaries are a professional fighting force with experience in warfare as career soldiers. When Armenia faces insufficient recruits, mercenaries can often help alleviate the urgent need for trained manpower in a rather protracted warfare. That is why it behooves to plan on finding reliable sources of mercenaries and arms in advance for the sake of efficiency.

     
     In 2016, again in 2020, we trusted our generals, but ended up swallowing the bitter results of the “Four-Day War” including the devastating 44-day carnage. National security for Armenia’s survival is every Armenian’s responsibility.  It is too vital to be trusted only to a few individuals for national security is the requirement to safeguard the survival of the state through the maintenance of economic robustness, astute diplomacy, rapid power projection, political acumen, and most importantly, resourceful military power predicated on advance preparedness.

     
     Even in the Information Age, if push comes to shove, military resources matter. Napoleon Bonaparte is credited to have said: “God is on the side of the big battalions,” and Mao Zedong seriously argued that power comes from the barrel of a gun.

        
    Unforgettably, the news of PM Nikol Pashinyan’s signing of capitulation on November 9, 2020 was seismic in its effects; it sent shock waves through the Armenian nation. Next to the Armenian Genocide, it was one of the saddest days.   We want to avoid another earthquake-like consequence by being prudent, prepared, and patriotic when faced with armed conflict with Azerbaijan.

        
  As we all know, Armenia and Azerbaijan are on a collision course when the former is determined to insist on the self-determination of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic in the geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus.  Our only main source of help would be from Russia, but Vladimir Putin seems to be playing Russian roulette with Armenia’s future by selling weapons to its sworn enemies to be used against a Collective Security Treaty Organization member (CSTO), namely Armenia. As a result, we should abide by the following pearl of wisdom that the ultimate national security is self-protection for survival against the overwhelming odds –the only other alternative opportunity for Armenians to have is to call genie.