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Attack Drones for Artsakh’s Existential Defense

Posted on May. 12. 2021

“Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum”
(If you want peace, prepare for war).
Roman General Vegetius

Z. S. Andrew Demirdjian

The history of warfare has shown that the presence of a weapon or an improvement over it in one’s armed forces could decide the outcome of the war against an equally or even a superior adversary. For instance, the Hittites fought against the mighty Egyptian army in the eight century B.C. at the battle of Kadesh. Even though the Egyptians had a well-trained, well-equipped large army, they lost the war to the Hittites for the former used “Three-Man Chariots” to closely engage the Egyptian forces. As a result, this put the entire Egyptian army to flight.

         
You see, the Three-Man Chariot was an improvement over other one-man contemporary chariots in close combat. Although the Three-Man Chariot sacrificed speed, it provided stability and elbow room with which to fight the enemy and if one or even the two of the three were killed, the third man would continue the fight.

         
The Artsakh Defense Forces were well-camouflaged in their high mountain positions, when the low- altitude flying decoy drones of Azerbaijan would appear in the sky. The Armenian soldiers inadvertently would come out and shoot them down, thinking they were combat drones. As the Armenian forces were first ferreted out in the open by disclosing their location, the deception, the hoax enabled the Turkish and Israeli attack drones to later achieve their strike mission by pulverizing the self-identified Armenian positions or targets.

        
  The current consensus of military specialists around the world is that Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs, aka drones), will have a pivotal role in future warfare. The proof was in the pudding of the Azerbaijan’s Turkish-backed surprise attack in the Artsakh War of 2020.  Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 and Israeli’s Harop strike drones had a decisive effect on the course of the war.

             
  One of Azerbaijan’s propaganda combat videos shows Armenian soldiers desperately firing into the sky as a buzzing sound increases and in a second a drone plunges into the roof of an Armenian armed vehicle, exploding it into a blaze of fire. Drone precision strikes like this have decimated the ground forces of the tiny republic of Artsakh.

         
Now that the dust has settled temporarily on the South Caucasus front on account of a flimsy truce made on November 9, 2020, as long as now we know that strike drones had caused the demise of the Artsakh Defense Forces, in this article let us explore the type of drone Artsakh would need and from where to obtain it for its survival defense against its deadliest nemeses.

         

Against the backdrop of increasing the international recognition of UAVs importance in the military arsenal, out of some 90 countries that have drones, only 11 of  these have armed drones. Unfortunately, Armenia and Russia are not members of this elite group of nations, but Turkey and Azerbaijan have the advantage of possessing attack or combat drones to lead their offensives.

         
Surprisingly, Russia has reconnaissance, but no attack drones in its arsenal of weapons. In an interview conducted by OE Watch (Operational Environment Watch) in December 2020, military analyst Konstantin Makienko had concluded by saying, “There are still no attack drones in Russia…[and that] we are 20-25 years behind our American ‘partners’ in this area.” He also makes the observation that “…The demonstration of the use of drones in the Karabakh war will spur Russian unmanned programs…to finally see the importance in fielding such a weapon system.” He goes on to say, “As of today, there are still no attack drones in Russia”.

         
To avoid any possible confusion, attack, strike, combat or armed drones will be interchangeably used as well as drones and UAVs stands for the same unmanned, remotely-controlled aircrafts.

         
On account of their swiftness and human-casualty free, the research and development departments of the defense companies around the world have earnestly begun to explore different possible uses of UAVs. In June of 2020, the European Commission came up with a new plan to hand out 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billon) to subsidize arms companies every year to develop new military technology along the line of remotely-controlled weapons.

       
   UAVs are nicknamed “drones” after the humming or buzzing of a male bee.  Presently, though, they are as silent as the Stealth aircraft bombers of the United States Air Force. The idea of inventing an unmanned aircraft was born during the Second World War. Both the United States and France were working on developing an automatic airplane remotely controlled. France came up with the prototype and the device was called the “Voisin BN3 biplane”, which was able to fly for about 100km without a pilot onboard.

         
Since WWII, drones have evolved into many kinds and capabilities. UAVs can be classified based on the specific function they are designed to serve in particular military operations. The following types of UAVs are based on their specific qualifications:

Target and decoy UAVs – these are the drones used to provide ground as well as aerial gunnery at a target, and are able to simulate an enemy missile or aircraft response. Azerbaijan deployed these kinds of UAVs during the Artsakh War of 2020 as decoys to identify the positions of the Artsakh Defense Forces.

Reconnaissance UAVs – these aircrafts are used to provide                     intelligence on the battlefield to help commanders make tactical        decisions. One of Azerbaijan’s reconnaissance UAVs had flown   over Armenia’s several cities such as over Abovian city in the         beginning of the Artsakh War of 2020 without striking any      positions.

Combat UAVs – these are the most lethal drones, used to provide attack capability for some high-risk missions when the enemy is well        camouflaged. Here again, Azerbaijan was lucky to launch     Turkey’s combat Bayraktar TB2 drones and Israel’s kamikazi Harop  drones over Artsakh’s Defense Forces’ positions in the     mountains after having Azerbaijan’s decoy drones disclosed   their locations.

Research and Development UAVs – these are used to advance UAV       innovation and technologies that can be integrated into UAVs that       have been deployed in battle. Even though Azerbaijan buys its     weapons from Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Israel, etc., it has a    bourgeoning weapon production program. Most of the decoy drones were the result of their refitting of their old models of n drones bought in the past from several sources to be deployed as sitting ducks.

Civil and Commercial UAVs – these are the drones designed to be used   in civil and commercial applications either for pleasure or for profit. Even Armenia’s Center for Technology has been working on these kinds of drones for a while instead of concentrating on armed combat drones ready to do battle from a remote distance. Ironically, after the disastrous Artsakh’s defeat  in the second war, The Center for Technology began to test a drone on which ACT had been working for some time. Too little, too damned late effort, Amigos, after sacrificing so many brave Armenian soldiers now you have begun to test your drones! The height of stupidity or negligence, a lot of people would say! Was it   John Galsworthy who said: “If do not think about your future, you cannot have one”.

        
  First and foremost, Artsakh needs to arm its brave soldiers with Attack, Combat drones and secondly with Target and Decoy drones to be able to counter the combined military forces of its arch nemesis.

         
With the scientific advances made in artificial intelligence and highly useful technology in robotics and nanotechnology, along with laser precision equipments, the future of UAVs look brighter every year. Some military observers foretell that soon wars will be waged only by UAVs without much assistance of ground weaponry such as cannons, artilleries, missiles, and the like as the dawn of this kind of combat took place during the Artsakh War of 2020 for the first time in the history of military warfare.

        
  In a news item, USA Armenian Life Magazine (Issue # 1777, April 16-22, 2021, P. E6) reported that “Russian-made drones could be delivered to Armenia”. However, the Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation spokeswoman, Valeria Reshetnikova, made this statement on April 7, 2020, long before the surprise attack by Azerbaijan. Therefore, nothing seems to be in the current plans for Armenia’s armament acquisition from Russia.

        
  Unfortunately, Reshetnikova was referring to the Orion-E reconnaissance system. Russia does not have strike drones yet. As a result, Armenia should be looking for attack or strike drones elsewhere or, better yet, begin producing their own version of strike drones.

         
For the price of one attack drone, Armenia can spend the fund as seed money to establish the facilities to produce its own drones. Let us take an example to show how it would be feasible to produce attack drones domestically.

         
Of the large combat and surveillance drones, the most well-known military drone is the Reaper made by the U.S. firm General Atomics, which are armed and deployed for controversial extrajudicial killings involving in foreign countries where the U.S. is not officially at war.

         
The Reaper MQ-9 model has a wingspan of 20 meters, weighs 2,220 kilo grams, maximum flight time is 14 hours non-stop, and its unit cost (without infrastructure) is  between $16.9 to $30 million.

         
The Reaper can be armed with various air-to-surface missiles, as well as laser-guided bombs, have a range of over a thousand miles. The Reaper can also be remotely controlled by satellite connections. Apart from the US, several other NATO air forces operate the Reaper, including those of the UK, Spain, France, and the Netherlands.

         
Granted, $16.9 to $30 million is a hefty amount of money for Armenia, but the Chinese-made rival model, the CH-4, which looks very similar to the Reaper and functions somewhat like it, has been bought by Egypt, Iraq, and Pakistan for a fraction of the cost of the US-made Reaper for a mere $1 to $2 million.

         
Compared to the Reaper, CH-4 is inferior, but for being cheap it does have qualities to attract one’s attention. For example, a CH-4 drone can carry 6 weapons and has a payload capacity of 345 Kgs. It can fire air-to-ground missiles from a height of 16,000 feet. It is powered by a 100 hp class piston engine giving a top speed of 235 km/h with endurance of up to 40 hours. Overall, CH-4 has copied most of the attributes of the Reaper.

         
Ideas have changed the world, ideas can also advance Armenia. Instead of buying one US Reaper for $16.9 or a Chinese Ch-4 drone for $1 million, Armenia can spend that money and   begin producing its own combat UVAs locally. The venture can begin by assembling parts purchased from the US or from China and in this way save a lot of money. A feasible plan of this sort will not only save money, it will also create jobs for the people. I can prepare a feasibility study when I see there is enough interest in such a project. Let us also remember that Armenia does not need to invent the drone, most of the combat drone designs are out of patent and any country can produce them legally.

         
According to military analysts, in the new era of unmanned aerial vehicle warfare, the size of the army does not count, at least not heavily. Therefore, if Artsakh were to be armed with attack drones, they would stand a better chance of victory over the adversary. Thus, it is imperative that we find ways and means of getting modern combat drones for its survival against the proven genocidal enemy bent on razing the Armenian historical province to the ground just like Gengis Khan used to do centuries ago.  The latest evidence comes from Pres. Joe Biden, who officially recognized the Armenian Genocide, indirectly stating that the Ottoman Turks had murderous schemes to exterminate a whole race.

         
Azerbaijan is no longer a backward country of your grandfather’s time. Coupled with the special forces of Turkey, mercenaries, jihadists, other volunteers, they represent a formidable adversary to reckon with.  Artsakh is facing serious challenges. Its fate has been gyrating on two axes: international recognition of its independence and the arming of its forces with attack drones. These two requirements are the common denominators of Artsakh’s salvation.

         
With the right weapons, our brave Armenian solider will certainly prevail over their cruel and brutal aggressors. So, let us join our hearts and minds together, and embrace the idea of producing attack drones to keep Artrsakh free, independent, and sovereign for our next generations.  We should not dilly dally and waste time in starting to  produce our own drones step by step before any armed conflict stares in Artsakh’s face. Closing the military gap is imperative for like the great white shark, President Ilham Aliyev has tasted blood and is in a frenzy to try to use force again to get his way by chanting the slogan “Karabakh is Azerbaijan”. After all, the future is kinder and gentler to those who plan in advance for tomorrow.