What’s Next for Metsamor Nuclear Electric Plant

BY GARBIS KORAJIAN
BSC MPA INTL, UN and WORLD BANK CONSULTA NT
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Following the August 9, 2020 article in Armenia USA Life entitled “The Beirut Explosion and Lessons Armenia should Learn from such a Calamity,” I would like to provide readers with some of the feedback we have received. I will also try to make some recommendations with regards to the existing threats facing Armenia and what should be done to replace Metsamor Nuclear Electrical plant.

From the feedback we received, most of the respondents who read the article were surprised by the reality of the severe threat that Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant poses to Armenia, in particular, to Yerevan which is located only 25 kilometers from the nuclear facility. Although the majority overwhelmingly agreed that having such a nuclear deterrence strategy would minimize the risk of Turkish or Azerbaijani attacks, a few readers questioned if Armenia will ever have the financial resources to build nuclear weapons. One of my friends thought that an accident or a deliberate attack on Metsamor should not be compared to the nuclear attack on Hiroshima that killed over 250,000 and caused the immeasurable suffering of its people. Many said the international community, especially Russia, the United States, France and other countries that possessed nuclear weapons would not allow Armenia to build its own weapon grade nuclear arsenal. Some also thought that the threat from Aliyev was a bluff and that no Azeri leader would dare to do such a thing, as it would have serious ramifications not only for Azerbaijan, but for Turkey as well. Interestingly enough, no one questioned if Armenia had the intellectual capacity and the qualified scientists with the potential to build a nuclear bomb.

A few days after I wrote this article, I read a disturbing commentary written by Krikor Amirzayan on Thursday, 6 August, 2020 on armenews.com. The title of this article is: “Leader of a Turkish ultra-nationalist party threatens Armenia.” This is what he said:

The leader of the Turkish ultra-nationalist party ′′Grand Union′′ (BBP) Mustafa Destidji at a press conference has looked back on Armeno-Azeri border tensions and Turkish-Azeri military exercises. The Turkish ultra-nationalist leader greeted these large-scale Turkish-Azeri military exercises and threatened Armenia. He said, in particular, “If Armenia continues its aggression against Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia will disappear in the coming years as well as the Armenian army”. The Turkish extremist added ′′If Armenia wants to co-exist with Turkey and Azerbaijan, let it first know that there is nothing but friendship.” Otherwise genocide of 1915?

What would anyone think about such a threat coming from the leader of the Turkish Ultra-Nationalist Party who publicly said that Armenia and its army would disappear in the coming years? If this statement coming from Mustafa Destidjihen does not scare you, what would? This lunatic is talking about wiping Armenia off the map? He is talking about wiping us off the face of the earth!

Without a doubt, such genocidal threats should be taken very seriously. Based on such threats, Armenia should take immediate, short-, medium-, and long- term actions.

Immediate Action

President Armen Sarkissian and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan should take such threats very seriously and make them an issue of global dimension. They should take the matter to international podiums to condemn the threat Aliyev and Turkish ultra-nationalist party ′′Grand Union′′ (BBP) Mustafa Destidji have recently made, whether it is the threat of bombing Metsamor or other threats of aggression. Foreign Affairs Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, who is a seasoned diplomat, should instruct the representative of Armenia to the United Nations, Mher Margaryan, to take to this matter to the United Nations General Assembly and openly condemn Azerbaijan. Such condemnations should also be made at the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Eurasian Economic Union, the European Union, and all other relevant international organizations. All Armenian ambassadors who are assigned in different countries should make the case with their host countries. In short, the whole world should know about such a threat made by Azeri and

Turkish leaders. International condemnation should follow with quick installations of anti-aerial missiles. Fighter planes should be on standby near Metsamor to protect the facility. Ground and aerial defense forces should coordinate and create a safe zone for the region.

Short- Term Action

After protecting the facilities with a strong defense, the Government of Armenia, in cooperation with the diaspora Armenians, should engage in serious dialogue with the European Union, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the United States, France, Germany and emerging superpowers like China and Russia to find a quick alternative form of energy to replace the old nuclear electric plant.

At present, the most reasonable and quick alternative source of electricity should come from our southern neighbor, Iran, as Iran is the closest friendly neighbor to Armenia. From Yerevan to the Iranian border is only 200 kilometers, and Tabriz, a strategic town in Northern Iran, is 250 kilometers from Yerevan. Also, the fact that Iran is rich in oil and gas, electricity generated from such sources is abundant in Iran. This plan will involve putting into place overhead electric transmission lines supported by electric poles that will be used to carry sufficient electricity from Iranian sources to Armenia. Once the imported electricity reaches Armenia, existing electric lines in the country would be used to distribute electricity to different parts of the country. From what we know, the existing domestic electric lines are sufficient to distribute the electricity coming out of Metsamor, therefore, building additional local lines will not be necessary. An infrastructure of this nature should have a price tag of no more than 100 million dollars. It can also be completed in less than 6 months. I am sure the Chinese might also be interested in financing and building such a project in Armenia for geopolitical interests. Besides, Metsamor only produces 40% of Armenia’s electricity, therefore, replacing this amount of electricity through import is not really that hard. Should the Western countries, in particular the United States, oppose such an arrangement with Iran, tough luck! Our national survival and national security is more important than what the West thinks or wants.

As soon as Armenia receives sufficient electrical supply, Metsamor nuclear facility should be dismantled and the property remediated for any nuclear contamination.

Medium- Term Action

Plans have to be made to build other alternative energy sources such as wind turbines, biomass (which can solve the solid waste problem for Armenia), geothermal, solar thermal energy and natural gas. Wind turbines are affordable, easy to construct and have low maintenance. Armenia being a mountainous country, will have no shortage of wind to generate much needed electricity. Taking example from Germany, which has doubled its wind turbine capacity in the last 10 years to 30,000, it generates 25 % of its electricity from such a source. Given the fact that President Armen Sargssyan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have a good working relationship with German’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, Armenia can benefit from Germany’s technological knowhow as well as receive financial assistance.

In the Province of British Columbia, Canada, where I reside, there are 21 large dams and 7 small dams. The small dams generate much needed electricity for small and medium size towns and communities without any impact on the environment. Such dams are usually 20 meters high and the reservoir would average 100 meters wide by 500 meters long. Smaller turbines are used to generate enough electricity for the nearby populations. Besides generating electricity, such dams would foster and encourage eco-tourism, provide irrigation water for farmers, encourage aquaculture, and provide a rich source of much needed fish for the Armenian market.

While all of this is taking place, Metsamor would be heavily guarded with modern equipment to repel any form of attack by the Azeris or Turks. As the imported electricity starts flowing to Armenia, the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant must and should be dismantled and sold for scrap metal.

Long- Term Action

Armenia and its scientists should not cast aside the plan of becoming a nuclear power. Hopefully, sometime in the near future, Armenia will gain the support to possess a nuclear weapon or two to deter any attack on Armenian soil. If such a wish becomes a reality, Armenia will become a truly independent and powerful nation, where our neighbors will have to think twice before threatening our great country, let alone attack her.

ABOUT
THE AUTHOR
Garbis Korajian is a consultant
for the World Bank,
Canadian Int’l Development
Agency (CIDA), the
United States Agency for International
Development (USAID), the United Nation
Development Agency (UNDP), the
Government of China and the Foreign
Affairs Ministry in Nagorno-Karabakh;
a graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School
of Government in Public Administration
specializing in Ethical Leadership, an
international consultant and trainer on
Good Governance, Ethical Leadership,
Anti-corruption education and social accountability.