Armenia Seeks Western Support as Relations With Russia Deteriorate As fears of another war grow, Armenia purchases French air defenses and says Russia failed to abide by its obligations as an ally BY YAROSLAV TROFIMOV | The Wall Street Journal

YEREVAN, Armenia—Abandoned by its traditional Russian ally and squeezed between two hostile neighbors, Armenia is reaching out for Western support as it fears another war.
This week, the landlocked country of three million people signed a deal to purchase from France modern air defenses, moving to fill a key capability gap that allowed Azerbaijan to rout Armenian forces in 2020. The agreement was announced in Paris as some 3,000 Turkish and Azerbaijani troops began joint drills on both sides of Armenia.
Bound to Russia by a military alliance and an economic union, Armenia is seeking new partners because Moscow has failed to live up to its commitments as an ally, especially during Azerbaijan’s takeover of the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave last month, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said.
“These events have essentially brought us to a decision that we need to diversify our relationships in the security sphere, and we are trying to do that now,” the Armenian leader said in an interview. He added that, because of this record, he doesn’t see any advantages in the continuing presence of Russian military bases in Armenia.
The predicament facing Armenia increasingly worries the U.S. and Western allies. In a world already ravaged by violence, from Ukraine to Gaza, the region is looming as yet another potentially explosive flashpoint in a long arc of instability that runs through Eurasia. While the conflict was until now focused on Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that was controlled by Armenians but internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, Western officials say they fear that it may now spread into Armenia proper.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly described most of Armenia, including the capital, Yerevan, as historically Azerbaijani lands that should be recovered. Even though he recently stated that Azerbaijan has no territorial claims on Armenia, officials and state-controlled media in Baku continue referring to most of Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan.” Aliyev on Wednesday canceled plans to meet Pashinyan for talks later this month in Brussels.
A growing concern in Washington and European capitals is that Azerbaijan, with Turkish support and Russian complicity, may attempt to conquer all or parts of Armenia in the coming months, creating a land bridge between Azerbaijan and Turkey. A parallel worry is that Russia, whose state media and officials have begun a vitriolic campaign against Pashinyan, may be planning a coup to oust the country’s leader.
“Territorial integrity of Armenia could be in jeopardy, and also its democracy,” warned Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis. “The symbol and the principal flag-bearer of democracy in Armenia is Pashinyan.”
A former journalist and one-time political prisoner who first came to power after antigovernment protests in 2018, Pashinyan has long been viewed with suspicion by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who abhors so-called “color revolutions.” Russia stood by as oil-rich Azerbaijan defeated Armenian forces in 2020, retaking areas that Armenians had occupied for decades. A Russian-guaranteed cease-fire collapsed in September, as Azerbaijan’s military seized Nagorno-Karabakh with little resistance, forcing almost all of the enclave’s 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee their homeland.
Pashinyan’s criticism of Moscow’s behavior, in particular in a speech at the European Parliament this month, has inflamed Russian wrath. So did Armenia’s decision this month to ratify the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, which has issued an arrest warrant against Putin for alleged war crimes in Ukraine.
Russia’s TASS state news agency, citing a high-placed official, described Pashinyan as rapidly following the path of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and trying to turn Armenia “into another Ukraine.” Russian state TV has aired a special called “Nikol Pashinyan, the harbinger of disaster.” Former President Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s national security council, blasted Pashinyan on social media, adding ominously: “Guess what fate awaits him.”
Asked about whether he was concerned by such statements, and whether he feared that Moscow may be seeking to oust him, Pashinyan didn’t disguise his frustration. “Such an approach violates many rules, starting with non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, and diplomatic correctness,” he said.
… Despite these limitations, the U.S. last month conducted the Eagle Partner exercise with Armenian forces involving some 85 U.S. personnel, focused on training for peacekeeping missions.
A looming existential threat means that the country must avoid an outright break with Moscow, said Vahe Hovhannisyan, a former lawmaker and a leader of the Alternative Projects Group opposition platform.
“Completely spoiling relations with Russia without getting any Western guarantees about national security and about preventing a Turkish-Azerbaijani military invasion? This is a direct path to suicide,” he said. “We cannot turn Russia into an enemy. Yes, it may not be a good ally. But it can be a formidable foe.”
Geography limits Armenia’s options. The country has only two relatively friendly neighbors—Iran, which is already engaged in a global confrontation with the U.S., and Georgia, whose government is close to Russia and Turkey.
“Armenians find themselves learning, one more time, the lessons of realpolitik,” said Arthur Khachikyan, a professor of international relations at the Russian-Armenian University in Yerevan. “We have this central conflict between the West and Russia. Both sides are trying to woo Turkey because it has a lot of resources, and both sides are willing to work with Turkey and Azerbaijan and not confront them. This is where we fall through the cracks.”
In the interview, Pashinyan said he remains optimistic about the prospects for a peace settlement with Azerbaijan in the coming months. The region’s future, he said, should be in opening long-closed borders and trade routes, including a land connection between Azerbaijan and Turkey through Armenia as long as it respects Armenian sovereignty. “Security should not be achieved through the army alone, but also through regional peace,” he said.
Asked about the country’s historic relationship with Russia, Pashinyan urged to focus instead on Armenia’s much longer history with its Turkic neighbors, Turkey and Azerbaijan. “This is where all the questions lie, and this is where the answers to all the questions lie,” he said. “We should work first to improve our regional relations.”
The diversification of security relationships that Armenia seeks, he added, should be understood as a quest for lasting regional peace rather than just a plea for Western military bases and weapons.