The collapse of relations between Russia and Azerbaijan came in a series of quick-fire blows.
It began with the arrest of seven nationals from the former Soviet republic last month in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg.
They were held as part of an investigation by Moscow into mafia-style killings dating back 25 years.
Within days, two suspects – both ethnic Azerbaijanis – died in custody. Others appeared in court visibly bruised and beaten.
Azerbaijan responded with fury. Russian cultural events were cancelled, the Baku bureau of the Kremlin-owned Sputnik news agency was raided, and a group of Russian IT workers was arrested and accused of drug-trafficking and cybercrime.
Then came the threat, on Russian state TV, that Baku could be “taken in three days”, echoing rhetoric used before the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
War is unlikely. But the rift is real – and dangerous for Moscow because Armenia, after fighting a series of brutal wars with Azerbaijan over 30 years, is aligning with its old enemy to push Putin out of the South Caucasus.
On July 10, Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan’s president, met Nikol Pashinyan, the prime minister of Armenia.
Their direct talks focused on the Zangezur Corridor, a proposed route linking Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave via southern Armenia.
The corridor would fulfil a pan- Turkic dream of physically connecting Azerbaijan with Turkey and would form part of the “Middle Corridor” trade route from China and Central Asia to Europe.
Under the 2020 ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the route was to be monitored by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).
But that arrangement is now under threat, with Mr Aliyev wanting to cut Moscow out of the deal and have it fully under Azerbaijani control.