YEREVAN — Armenia’s economy returned to a path of normal development in 2025, with key indicators stabilizing, Aghasi Tavadeyan, an expert at the Amberd Research Center, told Armenpress while assessing the country’s economic results for the past year. According to the economist, in the absence of radical geopolitical changes or extraordinary developments in the global economy, this trend is expected to continue next year as well. Overall, he forecasts that Armenia’s economy could post growth of around 4–5% in the coming years. Tavadeyan noted that in 2025 the positive effects linked to developments involving Russia—which had significantly accelerated Armenia’s economic growth in 2022–2024—were gradually neutralized. Among these factors were the large inflow of capital from Russia and Armenia’s involvement in the re- export of Russian gold. “In 2025, Armenia’s economy returned to its natural state, with data stabiliza- tion recorded, a nearly twofold reduction in export volumes, and a slowdown in GDP growth rates. However, overall, the economy remains stable,” the econo- mist said. He recalled that largely due to the re-export of Russian gold, Armenia’s to- tal exports reached $13.1 billion in 2024. Of this, 63% accounted for gold re- exports, which also had a significant impact on the country’s economic activity index. At the same time, exports of Armenia’s core goods to the EAEU countries and the European Union declined by 10% and 14%, respectively. “It is important to understand that the gold re-export factor, whose impact we observed from late 2023 through mid-2024, inflated not only our country’s export figures but also economic activity indicators,” Tavadeyan explained. “The growth of one of the key components of economic activity—industry—was driven not by the development of the core industrial sector, but predominantly (90–95%) by gold re-exports, which were recorded as domestically generated added value, though in reality they were not. Now, industry has declined because gold re-exports no longer exist. The removal of this factor has led to a nearly twofold reduction in Armenia’s export figures, which by the end of the year are expected to be in the range of $6–7 billion. We are also seeing a slowdown in economic growth rates, which are converging toward a long-term natural level of approximately 5–5.5%.” Tavadeyan also drew attention to changes in the list of Armenia’s largest tax- payers. “Growth has been recorded in the banking system. Today, banks that did not even exist 10 years ago are represented in the top ten. Meanwhile, indicators for mining companies have shown a slight decline,” he said. “Overall, by analyzing GDP figures and the factors contributing to growth, we can outline the following picture: thanks to funds received from abroad, the banking system has expanded, with its impact also felt in the construction sector. Increased activity in construc- tion has driven up real estate prices, which in turn has been accompanied by ris- ing service prices. These constitute the main components of Armenia’s economic growth. Of course, the information technology sector also plays a distinct role in the country’s development process.” In Tavadeyan’s view, no major economic shocks are expected in Armenia in 2026. “Overall, in 2026 Armenia’s economy will move toward a phase of stable moderation. If no extraordinary or exceptional events occur in the global econo- my or geopolitical system, Armenia is likely to record steady economic growth of 4–5% in the coming years,” he said. “Certain concerns do exist regarding potential issues in the real estate market, but these too will largely be shaped by global conditions. Some trends are already visible: in 2025, prices and transac- tion volumes in the secondary real estate market declined, while growth in the primary market has so far been maintained. In this regard, some decline has been recorded in Yerevan’s Kentron and Arabkir administrative districts,” Tavadeyan concluded.