“Destroy the seed of evil, or
it will grow up to your ruin.”
— Aesop
Z. S. Andrew Demirdjian
Ever since the Assyrian armies swept across the ancient region of Mesopotamia more than 3,000 years ago, the purpose of armies has been the same: 1. To conquer the “enemy” or to occupy a new territory like Azerbaijan has been doing 2. To defend one’s country as Armenia has been striving.
Until the 16th century, there were no modern-style armies in Europe; instead, sections of the populations, especially from the poor families, were called to arms whenever the country was at war with nomadic hordes from the Central Asia. Armenia seems to do the same way to call young men to arms and to train volunteers and send them to the front line. They seem not to have a standing army of consequence due to shortage of defense funds.
Today, however, most nations have a full-time army consisting of highly trained soldiers. Turkey, for example, has the second largest army in the NATO, well trained and well equipped with modern weaponry. Armies vary in size, but most modern armies contain not only experienced personnel but also the latest technology, including artillery, helicopters, guided missiles, tanks, and low-flying aircrafts for strafing to cite a few armament. Armenia lacks most of the foregoing weapons in their modern versions.
Technology has changed the role of the army in many ways. Previously, soldiers engaged in hand-to-hand combat where personal strength and bravery were needed; today, however, most armies rely on long-range weaponry even cowards can operate them such as the UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles), which have thrown our brave Armenian soldiers in utter confusion and rendered them defenseless.
Now that the dust has settled over the fateful 2020 war between Artsakh and Azerbaijan, in this article it will be argued for the imperativeness of planning for the future to prevent any further loss to the enemy, which will try to strike again to recapture of what is left of the Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh Republic).
Four developments or signs lead one to believe that there will be another war between Turkey/Azerbaijan over the possession of Artsakh. Four seeds have already been planted for the future conflict:
The first seed has been planted by Moscow, which has given the green light, signaling its approval for reoccupying Artsakh. In an interview on the Russian Channel Rossiya 1 TV on November 17, 2020, President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that the region of Nagorno-Karabakh was internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan. Putin further reasoned that Yerevan’s refusal to recognize the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh during its occupation of the province proved that it was an “inseparable part of Azerbaijani territory.” What a damaging statement and a clear encouragement to Azerbaijan to go after Artsakh.
Putin reemphasized his view by reiterating in different words that “Armenia did not recognize the independence and sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh.” As a result, “This meant that, from the point of view of international law, both Nagorno-Karabakh and all the regions adjacent to it were and are integral part of the territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan.”
Members of an alliance tend to protect the interests of its members, hence why Putin did not give a hint to Armenian officials to recognize Artsakh when it was appropriate to do so? Why mention it now when the window of opportunity is closed now (according to Putin)?
During another interview with Rossiya 24, Putin declared that “The final status of Karabakh has not been settled; we agreed that we will maintain the status quo that exists today.” He went on to say, “What happens next is to be decided in the future, or by future leaders, future participants of this process.”
The above statements by Putin that Artsakh is an “inseparable part of Azerbaijani territory” will serve as a green light, a justification for Azerbaijannis to wage war on the Armenians to get the rest of Artsakh. If and when the truce ends at the end of five years, and if it is not renewed, we should expect Azerbaijan on a mission to reoccupy Artsakh militarily. Again, Azerbaijan will refuse to negotiate diplomatically through mediators for they know full well by now that they definitely have superiority over Armenia’s armed forces.
The second seed has been sown by President Ilham Aliyev for insisting on occupying the strategic city of Shushi. He has been in agreement with the statement that “whoever has Shushi will control Karabakh.” The city is within a short striking distance of Stepanakert about 15 kilometers (9 miles to the south of the capital of Artsakh).
In a televised address to the nation the day Shushi was so-called fallen on November 8, 2020, President Ilham Aliyev declared “Shusha is ours –Karabakh is ours,” using the Azerbaijani version of the city’s name. By depending on the vital strategic position of Shushi, President Aliyev believes he will be able to recapture Karabakh easily by attacking Stepanakert from the lofty position of Shushi.
Turkey’s President Reccp Tayyep Erdogan, Azerbvaijan’s chief ally, echoed, at a rally in the northwestern city of Kocaeli, the same sentiment and resolve by welcoming the claimed victory by expressing “The joy of our Azerbaijani brothers who liberated their occupied cities and Karabakh step by step is also our joy.” It is worth noting the use of “step by step” liberation of Azerbaijani “cities” and “Karabakh.” It is obvious that Turkey and Azerbaijan have already decided to go after the rest of the Republic of Artsakh next time around.
Incidentally, the news about the so-called fall of Shushi must have made Erdogan Jubilant for he will claim credit for the victory. In fact, his expectation is well-founded for without his military assistance most likely our brave soldiers would have prevailed over Azerbaijan.
The third seed has been put in the ground by Turkey for it is sending Syrian mercenary settlers from Syria to live in the recently liberated regions of Azerbaijan to beef up its demographics in the Karbakh area. According to “Sky News Arabia,” the Turkish government has transferred dozens of Arab and Turkmen families from the areas under its control in northeastern Syria to the Nagorno-Karabakh region, to settle them in the areas from which the Armenian forces had evacuated. The goal is to bring about a demographic change in the region.
The fourth seed has been carefully nursed to grow by Azerbaijan for the omission to state what Armenia will get out of the compromise for peace. The November 9th truce signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia does not make any provision or mention for the future fate of the Republic of Artsakh. Ostensibly, it leaves it in the balance.
One would wonder after surrendering so much territory, you would say that Armenia should have bargained for the future security of Artsakh by making the militants legally binding themselves from not attacking the Republic of Artsakh anymore. Unfortunately, the road to recapturing Artsakh has been left wide open and Armenians are left without any chips for negotiation.
The seeds of war have been planted by Mr. Putin, Mr. Erdogan, and Mr. Aliyev. Azerbaijan now has been given by the foregoing head of states the passport or the visa to take over Artsakh. Since Armenians around the world won’t give up on Artsakh, war is imminent.
Here are a few ideas of which some are feasible; others are wild, but not impossible:
Relocate the capital city of Artsakh. One of my friends in Yerevan suggested the idea of relocating the seat of the government to another city since Stapanakert is so close in striking distance of Shushi. In this way, President Aliyev’s idea to control Karabakh will be neutralized.
Buy land to widen around the Lachin corridor for transit from Armenia to Artsakh (like the Israelis bought lands in Palestine from the Arabs in the 1940s).
Build also a tunnel as a passage to Artsakh to be mainly used in case of war. It can come handy to use it during peace time as well for it would reduce the time to travel from Armenia to Artsakh by half the time since the tunnel would be more level than zig zaging through the mountain highways. France and Italy have dug the Mont Blanc Tunnel to save travel time in the Alps by many hours. A Herculean project, but if we get Kirk Krikorian’s fortune, we can do it.
Reoccupy Lachin region next time Azerbaijan attacks Armenia. I hope I am wrong, but I feel strongly that we should not let our guards down and say it is the end of war with Azeris. I know the mentality of the Azerbaijani leaders: they will never willingly let go of their stolen lands from other nations. Conquering and usurping other peoples’ territories have been locked in their genes since they have left Central Asia.
Establish a much-needed Armenia Defense Fund. We need a fund constituted to help the Armenian army for weapons, military equipment, supplies, and financial aid to the returning veterans, the families of the fallen soldiers, and to begin establishing a standing army for immediate protection of Armenia and Artsakh against surprise attacks by the Turkey-Azerbaijani combo.
Of all the immediate things we plan to do, we should place the international recognition of the Republic of Artsakh at the top of the agenda.
Around the world, Armenians should ride on the good news that the French Senate almost unanimously (305 to 1) voted to recognize the independence of Artsatkh despite the French government’s refusal to follow suit on the historical vote of its senate. The reason offered by the French government officials was for pursuing a political solution to the Artsakh conflict. How could this be possible if Armenians have already given up the seven regions and a chunk of Karabakh, rendering themselves without any chips for bargaining?
The Armenian effort should continue to make the United State, Canada, and Australia including other nations to follow French Senate’s historic act of humanitarian gesture of protecting a Christian population maligned by the criminal intentions of Azerbaijan and its major ally Turkey, another genocidal government.
If Germany, Canada, Australia recognize Artsakh’s independence based on self-determination and for being a historical Armenian province inhabited by indigenous Armenians uninterruptedly for centuries, it would create the momentum for a snow ball effect. Other nations would follow suit because of the herd effect.
We must be proactive for our next generation. These are not mere clues pointing to the future, these are not just insinuations, — these are explicit communications of what Turkey/Azerbaijan plan to do next with the blessings of Russia. Let us remember that we are dealing with an enemy whose actions contradict their words.
The analyses of the four seeds of war constitute Turkey’s and Azerbaijan’s intentions toward reoccupying Artsakh “step-by-step” to destroy the Armenians in their own ancestral land. Let Armenia, Artsakh, and the Diaspora not fall back into the comfortable arms of complacency. This time around, let us take Azerbaijan’s threats seriously for we no longer have the seven regions to bargain with.
The clues and the evidence presented above clearly indicate that Azerbaijan will not relent in its campaign to get Artsakh back. On account of that, Armenians have to regroup, and through unity come up with ways and means to get ready for the next round of military clashes with Azerbaijan and its half a dozen of allies. If Armenians plant the seeds of faith, hope, and unity, our “Armenian garden” will blossom again!
