YEREVAN/LOS ANGELES – Armenia, an emerging Democracy in Southeast Europe, is now well on its way to full integration with the Free World and more specifically the European Union.
Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Poland, Baltic States, Sweden and Finland are on the verge of forming The Democracy Ring in Eastern and Southeastern Europe. Armenia and Georgia are vital links in the South Caucasus. Jointly, they can secure the free flow of energy and goods from the Indian Subcontinent (India and Iran) to Europe, Eastern Mediterranean basin and the Greater Middle East creating a viable alternative for Russian-controlled oil and gas flowing from Baku and other Russian energy hubs.
The formation of the Democracy Ring can prove to be a welcome geopolitical development for the Free World. However, its prospects have already caused temper tantrums among the regional bullies and dictatorial hegemonies – Russia, Turkiye and Azerbaijan. On April 1, with Kremlin’s tacit approval, Azerbaijan began shelling Armenian villages in the Southern Syunik region. This is a form of Russian gaslighting of the Armenian people; a blatant act of obstructing Armenia’s birthright to diversification of its foreign alliances. All independent and sovereign states have the same right.
As part of Russian-executed gaslighting of freedom-loving Armenians, Georgians, Ukrainians, Moldovans, Romanians and others, Kremlin has intensified its cyber and information disinformation campaign through its proxies in the targeted democracies. In Armenia, Putin’s and Aliyev’s allies – the 5th column, the Second and Third presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan along with their bankrolled media mouthpieces and cronies/fake activists, have embarked on a major media and disinformation offensive to discourage the populace to consolidate Armenia’s Sovereignty, Independence, Democracy and Defence.
Furthermore, Iran’s geostrategic setbacks in the Iraq/Syria region since September 2024, have emboldened Baku, Moscow and Ankara to exploit the current political climate between Washington and Tehran. Baku and Ankara are further enticed by Turkey’s terrorist proxies’ enhanced foothold in Northern Syria.
Now, an increasing number of defense and geopolitical analysts specialized in the Greater Middle East and South Caucasus, started sounding the alarm at the distinct possibility of “Russia, Turkiye and Azerbaijan of actively pursue forcible occupation of Armenia’s Southern Meghri Region under the so-called Russian/ Turkish peddled banner “Zangezur Corridor.” Ironically, both Iran and the United States are opposed to a joint Russian-Turkish occupation of Southern Armenia that would effectively cut off Armenia from Iran, India, the Gulf States and the Greater Middle East.
What would be the immediate consequences of such a tectonic geopolitical shift in the most coveted land bridge in the world located in Southern Armenia that connects the Indian Sub-continent with Europe; and Central Asia with the EU and the Greater Middle East?
1) The dictatorial trio Vladimir Putin of Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkiye and Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan would be emboldened to pursue the establishment of new empire stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean basin all the way to the The Altai Mountains and the Steppes of Central Asia under a new Seljuk/Tatar/Russian Empire;
2) Disrupt flow of alternative energy and goods from India/Iran to the European Union
As a member of the NATO alliance – a partnership that Ankara perceives entitles it to self-serving hegemonic influence in the region to the detriment of the Free World. Türkiye has been systematically abusing its membership in the transatlantic alliance. What Shall the US/EU Do?
a) The European Union shall expedite the execution of a new series of oil/ energy sanctions against Russia and its covert agent Azerbaijan;
b) The United States, France and the collective West should put their economic and military strategic partnership with Armenia on a fast-track and on a much larger scale in order to empower Armenia serve both as a deterrence against genocidal neighbors; and as an emerging bastion of Democracy in the South Caucasus. Such a move would create military balance between Yerevan and Baku. The Russian-sponsored military balance of early 2000’s was sabotaged by the Kremlin in the succeeding decades and Armenia was thrown under the bus. Now the West has a historic opportunity to assist in the establishment of a lasting mutually beneficial geopolitical order;
c) The US/EU must call out Baku for facilitating Moscow evade the sanctions by serving as a cover to bypass the current anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe; and
d) The West needs to seriously consider making a concerted effort to yank Iran away from the Russia-China tandem in order to establish a north-south corridor and east-west ‘Crossroads for Peace and Prosperity’ running through Southern Armenia’s Syunik region perpetually operating under Yerevan’s control.
What Shall Armenia Do?
Armenia must enforce the Rule of Law and The Steel Mandate that the current Pashinyan government has received during the June 2021 Special Parliamentary elections. As per Pashinyan’s campaign promises, The Steel Mandate calls for
– Confiscation of illegally-acquired assets from all kleptomaniacs under the old Kocharyan/Sargsyan and new Pashinyan regimes;
– Prosecute all the wrongdoers under the shield of Rule Law and bring them to Justice.
– Armenia should expedite the conversion of the entire civilian population into citizen-soldiers in the same vein as General Karekin Njdeh’s creation of a garrison state in 1920 that successfully defended Syunik against the Soviet Red Army coming from Baku, and Kemalist Turkish Army coming from Ankara. During WWII Switzerland emulated the Syunik garrison state model successfully discouraging Hitler from invading it. Currently Israel is a recipient of the lessons learned from Syunik, Armenia garrison state model.
In the absence of the full execution of the above, the number of disappointed Armenians is expected to increase dramatically affecting Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party’s standing both in Armenia and Diaspora.
In terms of Russian proxy Azerbaijan’s warmongering and sword-swinging, Armenia needs to develop an effective and swift response policy offering peace on the one hand and strong response on the other. Armenia must make clear to belligerent and genocidal Baku, that there will be consequences for threatening Armenia’s defenseless civilians, territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Certain favorable geopolitical dynamics permeated the South Caucasus in early 1990’s paving the way for a resounding Armenian military victory against joint Azerbaijani forces in the First Artsakh Liberation War. In the wake of destruction of the Soviet Union, the successor Russian Federation found itself in the socio-political abyss. Whereas Turkey experienced a steep downturn in Western economic and political subsidization. Both Russia and Turkey made a comeback thanks to Western support in order to serve as bulwark against China. However, both entities backstabbed the Free World by negotiating a backroom deal with China facilitating China’s penetration deep into Europe.
Hence, under the cover of global pandemic and America’s preoccupation with US presidential election, In Fall 2020, Turkey abused its NATO membership to perpetrate yet another genocide against the Armenians through its proxy Azerbaijan. In September 2020, Azerbaijan, Turkiye, ISIS and Russia (covertly) launched unprovoked terrorist aggression against Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh. In September 2023, Russian-sponsored Baku perpetrated genocide against Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians by forcibly uprooting the indigenous inhabitants from their millennia-old ancestral lands.
But now in the mid-2020’s, favorable geopolitical dynamics may re-emerge in the South Caucasus paving the way for a new Armenian military victory and final liberation of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Who could have foreseen the current marathon of anti-Erdogan protests in Turkey that started several weeks ago? Can Aliyev face similar turmoil at the hands of Azerbaijan’s disenfranchised and abused minorities such as Talysh, Lezgins, Tsakhurs, Avars, Shirvans and Armenians? Aliyev’s dictatorial Seljuk/ Turkic ethnic clan represents a tiny minority out of Azerbaijan’s 10 million population. Erdogan’s minority clan faces a similar dilemma.
Will the international community witness that dismemberment of both Turkey and Azerbaijan anytime soon? Stay tuned.